Technology Breakthroughs: Solutions to the Food and Energy Crises

Course Summary, Syllabus, Session Highlights, Bibliographic Recommendation Links

Rod Handeland Thursday 1-2:40 pm

http://www.usfca.edu/fromm/handouts.html

rpjhand@pacbell.net

www.rodhandeland.com/

Ever since textile, iron and steam innovations launched an industrial revolution over two centuries ago, our world has relied on technological innovation for new products and improved lives. In energy, we moved from wood to coal to petroleum, electricity and nuclear. In agriculture, technology refuted Malthus. As we face renewed challenges in both energy and food, can we again rely on technology to provide new answers to what appear to be overwhelming challenges? This course evaluates progress and potential for innovation in life sciences, informatics and other technologies to bring us new and more productive food sources as well as improved and renewable energy options that are cost effective, available and acceptable. The outcome will determine whether we can continue to rely on technology breakthroughs for solutions that lead to better lives and a world in which to live them.

Below are outline for Session 1 introduction and course overview, followed by summary topics for Sessions 2-8:

Session 1: Food and energy ties technology and innovation potentials

Food and Energy Ties

Ethanol from corn spurred by subsidies and incentives of 2003 Energy Act.

• Increased corn demand absorbed additional agriculture land, drove grain prices higher
• Major studies conclude that biofuels hurt rather than help carbon dioxide emission problem
• Ethanol imports restricted, including Brazil sugar based ethanol with 1/7 energy use of corn ethanol

Energy and food tied together by sun, photosynthesis, formation, growth, use

• Sun’s stored energy as both food and energy source, plant-animal-biosphere life cycle link usage
• Ammonia based fertilizers from petroleum, energy for irrigation, pesticides, herbicides
• Fuel and power for farm machinery, food transport, processing, storage and distribution
• Additional energy and costs for food conversion from plant to meat

Energy use supports food production that facilitates population growth and global warming

• Energy for irrigation for agriculture in ancient civilizations of Fertile Crescent, Indus, China
• Energy for metals, food, pottery, ships as trade spread around Mediterranean and Indian Ocean
• Northern Europe and England forests for warmth and cooking until depletion forces shift to coal
• Malthus 1798 arithmetic food growth and geometric population growth thesis, global warming now

Petroleum and food prices more related to supply and demand than global warming

• Petroleum price related to producing countries, refiners, traders, transportation, supply, demand
• Future petroleum prices affected by new energy option costs, transportation, public policy
• Global warming associated with population, economic activity and greenhouse gas levels
• Global warming focus on carbon dioxide emission reduction, increased forest lands

Petroleum supplies over 90% of transportation fuel, nearly 100% for motor vehicles

• US consumes about 25% of world petroleum, 45% of world gasoline
• Distances, commutes, suburbs, gas taxes, car preferences determine US gasoline demand
• Commodity traders, nationalized oil exporters, growing demand increase oil price volatility

Carbon dioxide is small but significant greenhouse gas

• Water vapor is about 70% of greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide and methane less than 20%
• Carbon dioxide emissions increase with fossil fuels used to support industrial growth
• Carbon dioxide emission per lb/kwhr electricity: Coal 2.1; Oil 1.9; Gas 1.3; Sun-Wind-Water-Nuclear 0

Nuclear, solar, wind, wave, geothermal energy avoid carbon emission but are costlier than fossil fuel

• 2006 cost/mmBTU: Hydro $.50; Coal, Nuclear $1.50; Oil $6.25; Gas $7.00; Wind $8.50; Solar $!0-13
• Oil price more than tripled to $135/bbl since 2004, gas up about 75% to $8.50/mcuft
• Volume and technology may lower renewable cost, resistance from public, environmentalists

Agriculture mechanization and productivity growth offset Malthus food predictions until 20 th century

• Food production, processing, distribution, preparation consumes 25-33% total energy used
• Green revolution and distribution/storage advances since 1950’s postponed food shortage crisis
• Hoped for biotech advances to help relieve food supply pressure slowed by delay, public opinion
• Land for biofuels and volatile climate contributed to food supply concerns and trade restrictions

Enormous financial flows from food and energy trade are growing rapidly with price rises

• 2007 US $2 trillion imports, $1.2 trillion exports, deficit from raw materials, autos, consumer goods
• US oil petroleum import cost $700 billion/yr at $135/bbl and 14mbpd, most to non-industrial export countries
• Discontinuity from cost plus economics in internal oil and food trade grows with price rises
• Enormous gap in countries abilities to recycle energy and food revenue into new wealth generation

Innovation and Technology Potential Solutions

Near term solutions for energy based on increased electricity in motor vehicles

• Motor vehicle electricity use dependent on battery improvement, incentive is $.75/gal cost
• Plug-in hybrids mass production by 2011 dependent on consumer demand and coal cost
• Conservation and life style changes are half of solution savings in all scenarios
• Global warming goal is solar, wind, wave or fusion cost competitiveness to coal and petroleum

Near term solutions for food are related to biofuels, micro lending, and nutrition education

• Substitute sugar for corn and grain biofuels, develop algae and cellulose fiber technologies
• Expand micro lending and agriculture education in developing world
• Reduce meat consumption to relieve energy, grain supply shortages, health risks and costs
• Alter food storage and distribution systems to lower energy use, cost, loss

Intermediate energy solutions from technology, cost reduction, fuel expansion, tax policy

• Reduce carbon emissions by technology that lowers solar, wind, wave, geothermal, nuclear costs
• Add algae photosynthesis approach for coal carbon to capture and store (CCS)
• Start public debate on oil floor price and associated cap/trade, import/windfall profit tax approaches
• Continue effort to move to electricity, hydrogen and other new fuels for transportation
• Use information technology advances to design new and retrofit existing buildings for energy saving
• Travel less, telecommute, develop and use smart grid and transport control electronics

Intermediate food solutions from life science acceptance, water-soil technologies, population level

• Improved understanding and acceptance of balance between science and values in genetic modification
• Technology to measure food, environment, water, soil, seed, growing, processing, distribution and expansion
• Education and understanding of balance between family size, economic opportunity, quality of life
• Shift of biotech health focus to food and energy objectives and potentials

Session 2: Adding cost effective electricity to transportation energy options

• From Edison to Spindletop, EV1 to Prius, plug in hybrids to batteries and grids
• Lithium ion batteries and storage advances
• Electricity generation sources, distribution grids, peak and average loads
• Dynamics of changing competitive advantages of electricity fuel sources and emission levels
• Powder River Basin and Appalachia coal, transportation, electricity generation, grid loss, algae, CCS

Session 3: Reducing food and energy conflicts of biofuels and increasing food costs

• Tradeoffs of grain price doubling and biofuels to control transport energy, reduce oil imports
• Technologies, politics and fuel prices of biofuels from corn, sugar, switch grass, algae, cellulose, other sources
• Natural and synthetic photosynthesis life cycle for energy and food production and environmental benefit
• Shifting advantages of small and large scale agriculture with energy cost changes and new innovations
• Energy and food benefits and tradeoffs from bio technology research, incentives, productivity increases

Session 4: Dramatic food growth through new green revolution, learning and resources

• Controversy of drought, pesticide, herbicide, insecticide resistant seeds from genetic modification
• Food supply line effect of micro lending programs in developing world
• Progress on nutrition, meat-vegetable balance, obesity, exercise in life styles
• Information and electronic technologies to control water, soil, plant growth, energy use
• Value of deterring and risk of enabling genetic modification of food to lift productivity and scale

Session 5: Technologies for energy supply, storage, distribution, emissions

• Plant and algae to use carbon emission of fossil fuel electric plants for biofuel production
• Cost, quantity, reliability of electricity storage to help solar, wind, wave, geothermal competitiveness
• Public acceptance of nuclear necessity and associated safety, waste reprocessing, storage issues
• Manufacturing, building, material innovations integrated with smart systems to double energy efficiency

Session 6: Limits and potentials of individual actions and political commitment

• Individual choices to limit travel, alter time use, shift consumption, reuse, measure energy use
• Increase in telecommuting, exercise, nutrition, reduction in power use, opportunity inequality
• Willingness to understand and support energy price floors to avoid price volatility, spur innovation
• Shift from growth to sustainable economic goals and business systems
• Extent of commitment and timetable to clean and cost effective energy for fossil fuel replacement

Session 7: US energy and food technology potential to help world

• China , India, East Europe economic rise effect on coal, industrial growth, infrastructure demands
• Petroleum exporters and new wealth creation or financial recycling potential
• Brazil and Mexico in Latin America progress and growing gaps and resources in other Latin countries
• Opportunities to offset or overcome limits of resource poor developing world
• Europe, North America, Japan. Rim of Asia need for and use of new energy and food technologies

Session 8: Learning from past to ensure life quality and opportunity in future

Food and Energy Highlights Through History

• Dawn of Civilization through Roman world
• Forests to coal for cooking and warmth with steam engine pump as catalyst
• Enclosure laws and effect on both food productivity and international trade
• Industrial revolution and realization of both promise and perils of technology

Food and Energy Tradeoffs and Commitments Needed for Future Improvements

• Imperative of energy and food growth and flexibility as stopgap to support new solutions
• Transition to new energy sources for financial balance, affordability and emission control
• Willingness to accept new food technologies to refute Malthus and shift from growth to sustainability
• Rapid transfer of new technologies to spread benefits throughout world
• Question of nation states and resource tie, equal opportunity and economic benefits

Reference Reading and Bibliographic Resources

Overall Curriculum Recommended Books

The Plot to Save the Planet: How Visionary Entrepreneurs and Corporate Titans Are Creating Real Solutions to Global Warming, Brian Dumaine, 2008, http://www.amazon.com/Plot-Save-Planet-Visionary-Entrepreneurs/dp/0307406180

Biotech 2008 Life Sciences: 2020 Vision to 2020, Burrill & Company, 2008, http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reportinfo.asp?report_id=604155&t=t&cat_id=

Eco- Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth, Lester R. Brown, 2001, http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_b?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=Eco-+Economy%3A+Building+an+Economy+for+the+Earth

Other Course Resources

Other Book and Article Resources by Category and Links at http://www.usfca.edu/fromm/handouts.html

Questions and Comments: Contact rpjhand@pacbell.net

Course Highlights, Images and Previous Business History Courses http://www.rodhandeland.com/