Dramatic increase in energy per capita over 100 yrs: 100 to >350 TBTU/yr
Shift from coal to petroleum and gas, which are declining
Forecasts of world: more coal, intro of renewables, question of how fast due to cost, can oil supply rise
US Energy Use: Oil >40%; Coal, Gas 22-3%, Nuclear, Renewables 7%: Biomass, Hydro 3%
Solar, Wind, Geo <1%, Could grow fast if costs drop, wind, solar most
US 25% world oil use, >45% gasoline, 70% oil to transport, > 89% transport from oil, cars largest
14MMbpd of 20MMbpd oil, >2/3 imported, $700 billion/yr @ $135/bbl for <$2/bbl
US peak oil 1970, reserves low, costs high vs. ME, Central Asia
With China, India other growth, world peak oil 2000
Financial whirlwind of shuffling on Wall St and non-wealth enhancing oil states, $700 billion
Israel & Arab Mideast contrast on wealth creation use of resources, fin threats vs. globalization
1700 England, steam engine as pump for coal, move energy, select factory locations
Murdoch of Bolton & Watt steam, Cornwall, introduced coal gas for lighting
Electricity: Franklin, Volta battery, Faraday electromagnetic induction, Davenport motor, Morse
1859 Drake oil well Titusville, Oil City, lubrication, 40 yrs kerosene for oil
1879 Edison, Swan, Brush electric light, 1881 Edison Pearl St NY
Tesla, Westinghouse, AC vs. DC, Niagara, Chicago 1893 Fair
Electricity AC expansion throughout US, Insull downfall, Rural electrification; motors, appliances
US energy flows: almost all oil, gas, electricity. Huge losses, conservation efficiency potentials
Coal mine steam on rails, 1771 Cugnot, 1805 Evans dredge, 1807 Fulton steamboat, 1828 Jedlick
Dominance of coal – steam on rail from 1830, unifies north, all lines EW but IC
Mass electric transit: 1888 Sprague, 1904 NY BMT, 1905 PacElec RR LA Red Cars, US Interurban
Internal combustion Europe: 1876 Otto, 1884 Daimler Benz, 1886 Diesel
US 1895 Selden patent, Duryea, 1903 Ford, 1908 Model T, 1911 Edison-Ford Electric plan
1901 Spindletop, 1911 Standard Oil breakup, Churchill coal to Persia oil for UK fleet ensured oil dominance
Sloan and DuPont at GM Ike cross country to boost road need for autos post WWI explosion
Diesel to trains and aviation fuel for growing air transport by 1930’s, dominance of ME oil after WW II
Rise of nationalism, independent colonies, decline of oil company concessions 1950-70’s
Cost spreads between ME and other petroleum reserves, OPEC in 1970’s, oil traders, price volatility
CA air quality lead 1975 catalytic converters, 1990’s electric cars from GM, Ford, folded into hydrogen hope
Oil price escalation as Prius introduced, revival of electric interest in cars as hydrogen hopes recede
Plug in hybrids, mass market by 2010’s: Tesla, Think, others niche markets; Prius, Chevy Volt mass market
Potential of $.75 gallon equivalent electric cost, limited new infrastructure of plug-ins, grid supply and use
Complications and costs of batteries, limits to range, battery exchange stations, lease financing
Fuel sources to add electricity to gasoline in cars: Cauldron of technologies, costs, emissions
Electricity fuel forecasts reflect current costs and availability rather than emissions
Forecasts for electricity fuels could alter with technology breakthroughs, pricing policies, regulations
Carbon dioxide is minor, but important greenhouse gas emission
Rise in greenhouse gas emissions related to population, industrialization, tropical deforestation rise
Petroleum largest contributor to emissions, but internal combustion engines complicate control
Carbon emissions vary by fuel source and end use
Renewable energy resources are very small part of current electricity fuels
Hydro low cost but limited, wind competitive but inconsistent, solar improving
Enormous recent investment in photovoltaic and other renewable energy technologies
Wind, solar, geo, wave potentials vary with location
Coal and petroleum reserves vary among developing, emerging, developed countries
U.S. coal production mostly in West, primarily Powder River Basin, Wyoming
Coal importance related to China and India energy supply and expansion plans
Powder River Basin coal $5/ton at strip mine face, $25-30/ton at power plant after rail transport
Clean coal, gasification, carbon sequestering & storage (CCS) emission potential, but costs high
Symbiotic potential of coal power plants and algae farms
Algae, genetic modification, technology potential and links between food and energy