Session 1: Food and energy ties technology and innovation potentials

Food and Energy Ties

Fosssil fuels are energy in stored sunlight

After Ice Ages Wild Grains BecameDomesticated from Anatolia and Other Regions

Until Industrial Revolution in 18th Century Energy Came from Wind, WaveWood or Muscle

Food is stored sunlight energy via photosynthesis, just as fossil fuel energy is stored sunlight

During 1700's Steam and coal surpassed wood as energy source as England was deforested

In 1798 Malthus postulated that population would outrun food, but to date technology has refuted that premis, despite energy food links

Ethanol from corn spurred by subsidies and incentives of 2003 Energy Act

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• Increased corn demand absorbed additional agriculture land, drove grain prices higher

• Major studies conclude that biofuels hurt rather than help carbon dioxide emission problem

• Ethanol imports restricted, including Brazil sugar based ethanol with 1/7 energy use of corn ethanol

Energy and food tied together by sun, photosynthesis, formation, growth, use

• Sun’s stored energy as both food and energy source, plant-animal-biosphere life cycle link usage

• Ammonia based fertilizers from petroleum, energy for irrigation, pesticides, herbicides

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• Fuel and power for farm machinery, food transport, processing, storage and distribution

Hetch Hetch and Hoover Dam for California and Arizona Power and Irrigation

Central Valley Project for California Water and US Water Resources

• Additional energy and costs for food conversion from plant to meat

Energy use supports food production that facilitates population growth and global warming

• Energy for irrigation for agriculture in ancient civilizations of Fertile Crescent, Indus, China

• Energy for metals, food, pottery, ships as trade spread around Mediterranean and Indian Ocean

• Northern Europe and England forests for warmth and cooking until depletion forces shift to coal

• Malthus 1798 arithmetic food growth and geometric population growth thesis, global warming now

Petroleum and food prices more related to supply and demand than global warming

• Petroleum price related to producing countries, refiners, traders, transportation, supply, demand

• Future petroleum prices affected by new energy option costs, transportation, public policy

• Global warming associated with population, economic activity and greenhouse gas levels

• Global warming focus on carbon dioxide emission reduction, increased forest lands

Petroleum supplies over 90% of transportation fuel, nearly 100% for motor vehicles

• US consumes about 25% of world petroleum, 45% of world gasoline

• Distances, commutes, suburbs, gas taxes, car preferences determine US gasoline demand

• Commodity traders, nationalized oil exporters, growing demand increase oil price volatility

Carbon dioxide is small but significant greenhouse gas

• Water vapor is about 70% of greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide and methane less than 20%

• Carbon dioxide emissions increase with fossil fuels used to support industrial growth

• Carbon dioxide emission per lb/kwhr electricity: Coal 2.1; Oil 1.9; Gas 1.3; Sun-Wind-Water-Nuclear 0

Nuclear, solar, wind, wave, geothermal energy avoid carbon emission but are costlier than fossil fuel

• 2006 cost/mmBTU: Hydro $.50; Coal, Nuclear $1.50; Oil $6.25; Gas $7.00; Wind $8.50; Solar $!0-13

• Oil price more than tripled to $135/bbl since 2004, gas up about 75% to $8.50/mcuft, grains triple

• Volume and technology may lower renewable cost, resistance from public, environmentalists

Agriculture mechanization and productivity growth offset Malthus food predictions until 20 th century

• Food production, processing, distribution, preparation consumes 25-33% total energy used

• Green revolution and distribution/storage advances since 1950’s postponed food shortage crisis

• Hoped for biotech advances to help relieve food supply pressure slowed by delay, public opinion

• Land for biofuels and volatile climate contributed to food supply concerns and trade restrictions

Enormous financial flows from food and energy trade are growing rapidly with price rises

• 2007 US $2 trillion imports, $1.2 trillion exports, deficit from raw materials, autos, consumer goods
• US oil petroleum import cost $700 billion/yr at $135/bbl and 14mbpd, most to non-industrial export countries

• Discontinuity from cost plus economics in internal oil and food trade grows with price rises

• Enormous gap in countries abilities to recycle energy and food revenue into new wealth generation